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1H Goals Model Update Live
2 Nov 2026
We have pushed an update to our 1H goals model, making it even more reliable for sizing up games that may or may not see a 1H goal being sc…
For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles 100,000 times. Go Ahead Eagles won 45,076 of them (45.1%), the draw came up 25% of the time and Excelsior won 30%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11%, while the likeliest Go Ahead Eagles win is 1-2 (8.9%). Both teams score in 65.8% of simulations.
| Excelsior win | 30% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 45.1% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11%) |
| Expected goals | 1.48 – 1.85 |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.6% |
| Excelsior score first | 43.4% |
| Go Ahead Eagles score first | 51.7% |
| Excelsior clean sheet | 16.2% |
| Go Ahead Eagles clean sheet | 23.1% |
Willem II
PEC Zwolle
1.4–1.7
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Fortuna Sittard
Telstar
1.6–1.3
xG
56%
Over 2.5
ADO Den Haag
Sparta Rotterdam
1.7–1.7
xG
65%
Over 2.5
SC Heerenveen
Feyenoord
1.4–1.9
xG
64%
Over 2.5
FC Twente
Ajax
1.7–1.6
xG
64%
Over 2.5
AZ Alkmaar
FC Groningen
2.2–1.2
xG
65%
Over 2.5
SC Cambuur
PSV
1.3–2.5
xG
73%
Over 2.5
FC Utrecht
NEC Nijmegen
1.6–1.7
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420609700 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Go Ahead Eagles are favourites. They win 45.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25% for the draw and 30% for Excelsior. Including the draw, Go Ahead Eagles avoid defeat 70% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.9%) and 2-1 (7.2%). The likeliest Go Ahead Eagles win is 1-2 (8.9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 65.8% of simulations. Excelsior keep a clean sheet 16.2% of the time and Go Ahead Eagles 23.1%.
The simulations average 3.33 goals: 1.48 for Excelsior and 1.85 for Go Ahead Eagles. Over 1.5 goals lands 85.5% of the time, over 2.5 goals 64.4% and over 3.5 goals 42.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.