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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar 100,000 times. Ajax won 54,459 of them (54.5%), the draw came up 21.1% of the time and AZ Alkmaar won 24.4%. The most likely score is 2-1 (9.1%), and both teams score in 66.9% of simulations.
| Ajax win | 54.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.1% |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 24.4% |
| Most likely score | 2-1 (9.1%) |
| Expected goals | 2.18 – 1.41 |
| Both teams to score | 66.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.2% |
| Ajax score first | 59.9% |
| AZ Alkmaar score first | 36.9% |
| Ajax clean sheet | 24.7% |
| AZ Alkmaar clean sheet | 11.7% |
Feyenoord
Fortuna Sittard
3.0–0.8
xG
72%
Over 2.5
SC Heerenveen
NEC Nijmegen
1.8–1.6
xG
65%
Over 2.5
PSV
Willem II
3.9–0.9
xG
85%
Over 2.5
SC Cambuur
Go Ahead Eagles
1.7–1.8
xG
68%
Over 2.5
PEC Zwolle
ADO Den Haag
1.6–1.5
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Telstar
FC Utrecht
1.5–1.8
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Excelsior
FC Twente
1.0–2.3
xG
63%
Over 2.5
FC Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
2.0–1.4
xG
67%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420609715 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Ajax are favourites. They win 54.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 21.1% for the draw and 24.4% for AZ Alkmaar. Including the draw, Ajax avoid defeat 75.6% of the time.
2-1, which came up in 9.1% of simulations. Next are 1-1 (8.8%) and 3-1 (6.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 66.9% of simulations. Ajax keep a clean sheet 24.7% of the time and AZ Alkmaar 11.7%.
The simulations average 3.59 goals: 2.18 for Ajax and 1.41 for AZ Alkmaar. Over 1.5 goals lands 87.4% of the time, over 2.5 goals 69.3% and over 3.5 goals 48.2%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.