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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Azerbaijan vs Lithuania 100,000 times. Azerbaijan won 36,578 of them (36.6%), the draw came up 32.3% of the time and Lithuania won 31.1%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 14.4%, while the likeliest Azerbaijan win is 1-0 (12.4%). Both teams score in 42.7% of simulations.
Full time 1-0. Before kick-off the simulations had Azerbaijan winning 36.6% and gave this exact score 12.4%.
| Azerbaijan win | 36.6% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 32.3% |
| Lithuania win | 31.1% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (14.4%) |
| Expected goals | 1.10 – 0.99 |
| Both teams to score | 42.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.1% |
| Azerbaijan score first | 46.7% |
| Lithuania score first | 39.6% |
| Azerbaijan clean sheet | 37.4% |
| Lithuania clean sheet | 33.7% |
Türkiye
Belgium
1.4–1.8
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Armenia
Cyprus
1.3–1.2
xG
46%
Over 2.5
Czech Republic
Spain
0.6–2.6
xG
59%
Over 2.5
England
Croatia
2.7–0.8
xG
68%
Over 2.5
Italy
France
1.3–1.8
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Albania
Finland
1.4–1.0
xG
42%
Over 2.5
Montenegro
Latvia
2.0–0.7
xG
49%
Over 2.5
San Marino
Belarus
0.4–2.7
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420688695 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Azerbaijan are favourites. They win 36.6% of our 100,000 simulations, against 32.3% for the draw and 31.1% for Lithuania. Including the draw, Azerbaijan avoid defeat 68.9% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 14.4% of simulations. Next are 0-0 (13.8%) and 1-0 (12.4%). The likeliest Azerbaijan win is 1-0 (12.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 42.7% of simulations. Azerbaijan keep a clean sheet 37.4% of the time and Lithuania 33.7%.
The simulations average 2.09 goals: 1.10 for Azerbaijan and 0.99 for Lithuania. Over 1.5 goals lands 62.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 34.7% and over 3.5 goals 16.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.