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For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Croatia vs Spain 100,000 times. Spain won 75,465 of them (75.5%), the draw came up 14.5% of the time and Croatia won 10%. The most likely score is 0-2 (10.9%), and both teams score in 51.4% of simulations.
Full time 1-2. Before kick-off the simulations had Spain winning 75.5% and gave this exact score 8.9%.
| Croatia win | 10% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 14.5% |
| Spain win | 75.5% |
| Most likely score | 0-2 (10.9%) |
| Expected goals | 0.83 – 2.61 |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.9% |
| Croatia score first | 25% |
| Spain score first | 72% |
| Croatia clean sheet | 7.7% |
| Spain clean sheet | 44% |
Türkiye
Belgium
1.4–1.8
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Armenia
Cyprus
1.3–1.2
xG
45%
Over 2.5
Czech Republic
Spain
0.6–2.6
xG
59%
Over 2.5
England
Croatia
2.7–0.8
xG
68%
Over 2.5
Italy
France
1.3–1.8
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Albania
Finland
1.4–0.9
xG
42%
Over 2.5
Montenegro
Latvia
2.0–0.7
xG
50%
Over 2.5
San Marino
Belarus
0.4–2.7
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420693614 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Spain are favourites. They win 75.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 14.5% for the draw and 10% for Croatia. Including the draw, Spain avoid defeat 90% of the time.
0-2, which came up in 10.9% of simulations. Next are 0-3 (9.4%) and 1-2 (8.9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 51.4% of simulations. Croatia keep a clean sheet 7.7% of the time and Spain 44%.
The simulations average 3.44 goals: 0.83 for Croatia and 2.61 for Spain. Over 1.5 goals lands 85.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 66.3% and over 3.5 goals 44.9%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.