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  1. Simulations
  2. Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol
Primera Division · 100,000 simulations

Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol prediction

We simulated Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol 100,000 times. Peñarol won 52,345 of them (52.3%), the draw came up 25.9% of the time and Defensor Sporting won 21.7%. The most likely score is 0-1 (13.8%), and both teams score in 45.3% of simulations.

Defensor Sporting badge
Defensor Sporting Estadio Luis Franzini
Sunday 15 November
Peñarol badge
Peñarol Away
21.7% 21,733 wins
25.9% Draw
52.3% 52,345 wins
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.53
Likeliest score
0-1 13.8%
Both score
45.3%
Over 2.5
43.1%
Simulated 100,000 times Updated José Burgos Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo

Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol in numbers 100,000 simulations · Primera Division · Sunday 15 November, 23:00

Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol simulation probabilities
Defensor Sporting win21.7%
Draw25.9%
Peñarol win52.3%
Most likely score0-1 (13.8%)
Expected goals0.88 – 1.53
Both teams to score45.3%
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals43.1%
Over 3.5 goals22.4%
Defensor Sporting score first34.3%
Peñarol score first56.7%
Defensor Sporting clean sheet22.1%
Peñarol clean sheet41.9%
Football simulation API

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Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.

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# 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves,
# corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown

Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol prediction FAQs

Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol?

Peñarol are favourites. They win 52.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.9% for the draw and 21.7% for Defensor Sporting. Including the draw, Peñarol avoid defeat 78.3% of the time.

What is the most likely score in Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol?

0-1, which came up in 13.8% of simulations. Next are 1-1 (12%) and 0-2 (10.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.

Will both teams score in Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol?

Both teams score in 45.3% of simulations. Defensor Sporting keep a clean sheet 22.1% of the time and Peñarol 41.9%.

How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol?

The simulations average 2.40 goals: 0.88 for Defensor Sporting and 1.53 for Peñarol. Over 1.5 goals lands 69% of the time, over 2.5 goals 43.1% and over 3.5 goals 22.4%.

How does the OddAlerts match simulator work?

Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.

How often is the simulation updated?

Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.