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UEFA Nations League · 100,000 simulations

Estonia vs Iceland prediction

We simulated Estonia vs Iceland 100,000 times. Iceland won 57,124 of them (57.1%), the draw came up 25% of the time and Estonia won 17.9%. The most likely score is 0-1 (13.1%), and both teams score in 46.2% of simulations.

Estonia badge
Estonia Sportland Arena
0–0 Full time
Iceland badge
Iceland Away
17.9% 17,884 wins
25% Draw
57.1% 57,124 wins
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.69
Likeliest score
0-1 13.1%
Both score
46.2%
Over 2.5
46.1%

Full time 0-0. Before kick-off the simulations had the draw at 25% and gave this exact score 8.8%.

Simulated 100,000 times Updated David Dickinson Sportland Arena, Estonia
Estonia vs Iceland live score, stats & lineups

Estonia vs Iceland in numbers 100,000 simulations · UEFA Nations League · Tuesday 6 October, 19:45

Estonia vs Iceland simulation probabilities
Estonia win17.9%
Draw25%
Iceland win57.1%
Most likely score0-1 (13.1%)
Expected goals0.83 – 1.69
Both teams to score46.2%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals46.1%
Over 3.5 goals24.9%
Estonia score first30.3%
Iceland score first61%
Estonia clean sheet18.8%
Iceland clean sheet43.8%
Football simulation API

Put this simulation in your own models

Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.

GET /api/predictions/generate/420693618
  ?v=2
  &detail=standard
  &include=value,corners,cards

# 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves,
# corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown

Estonia vs Iceland prediction FAQs

Who will win Estonia vs Iceland?

Iceland are favourites. They win 57.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25% for the draw and 17.9% for Estonia. Including the draw, Iceland avoid defeat 82.1% of the time.

What is the most likely score in Estonia vs Iceland?

0-1, which came up in 13.1% of simulations. Next are 1-1 (11.7%) and 0-2 (11.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.

Will both teams score in Estonia vs Iceland?

Both teams score in 46.2% of simulations. Estonia keep a clean sheet 18.8% of the time and Iceland 43.8%.

How many goals will there be in Estonia vs Iceland?

The simulations average 2.53 goals: 0.83 for Estonia and 1.69 for Iceland. Over 1.5 goals lands 72% of the time, over 2.5 goals 46.1% and over 3.5 goals 24.9%.

How does the OddAlerts match simulator work?

Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.

How often is the simulation updated?

Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.