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  1. Simulations
  2. Newport County vs Plymouth Argyle
EFL Trophy · 100,000 simulations

Newport County vs Plymouth Argyle prediction

We simulated Newport County vs Plymouth Argyle 100,000 times. Plymouth Argyle won 54,397 of them (54.4%), the draw came up 22.8% of the time and Newport County won 22.8%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.4%, while the likeliest Plymouth Argyle win is 1-2 (9.6%). Both teams score in 59.6% of simulations.

Newport County badge
Newport County Rodney Parade
2–2 Full time
Plymouth Argyle badge
Plymouth Argyle Away
22.8% 22,778 wins
22.8% Draw
54.4% 54,397 wins
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.95
Likeliest score
1-1 10.4% Top Plymouth win: 1-2 9.6%
Both score
59.6%
Over 2.5
60.4%

Full time 2-2. Before kick-off the simulations had the draw at 22.8% and gave this exact score 5.7%.

Simulated 100,000 times Updated Niall Smith Rodney Parade, Casnewyd

Newport County vs Plymouth Argyle in numbers 100,000 simulations · EFL Trophy · Tuesday 6 October, 19:00

Newport County vs Plymouth Argyle simulation probabilities
Newport County win22.8%
Draw22.8%
Plymouth Argyle win54.4%
Most likely score1-1 (10.4%)
Expected goals1.19 – 1.95
Both teams to score59.6%
Over 1.5 goals82.2%
Over 2.5 goals60.4%
Over 3.5 goals38.3%
Newport County score first38.9%
Plymouth Argyle score first55.8%
Newport County clean sheet14.7%
Plymouth Argyle clean sheet30.8%
Football simulation API

Put this simulation in your own models

Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.

See the API Try it for 48 hours, £9.99 
GET /api/predictions/generate/420657180
  ?v=2
  &detail=standard
  &include=value,corners,cards

# 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves,
# corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown

Newport County vs Plymouth Argyle prediction FAQs

Who will win Newport County vs Plymouth Argyle?

Plymouth Argyle are favourites. They win 54.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 22.8% for the draw and 22.8% for Newport County. Including the draw, Plymouth Argyle avoid defeat 77.2% of the time.

What is the most likely score in Newport County vs Plymouth Argyle?

1-1, which came up in 10.4% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (9.6%) and 0-2 (8.2%). The likeliest Plymouth Argyle win is 1-2 (9.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.

Will both teams score in Newport County vs Plymouth Argyle?

Both teams score in 59.6% of simulations. Newport County keep a clean sheet 14.7% of the time and Plymouth Argyle 30.8%.

How many goals will there be in Newport County vs Plymouth Argyle?

The simulations average 3.14 goals: 1.19 for Newport County and 1.95 for Plymouth Argyle. Over 1.5 goals lands 82.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 60.4% and over 3.5 goals 38.3%.

How does the OddAlerts match simulator work?

Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.

How often is the simulation updated?

Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.