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For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Chelsea vs Leeds United 100,000 times. Chelsea won 53,764 of them (53.8%), the draw came up 24.5% of the time and Leeds United won 21.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.5%, while the likeliest Chelsea win is 1-0 (9.8%). Both teams score in 54.5% of simulations.
| Chelsea win | 53.8% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.5% |
| Leeds United win | 21.7% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.5%) |
| Expected goals | 1.79 – 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% |
| Chelsea score first | 62.4% |
| Leeds United score first | 30.9% |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 35.1% |
| Leeds United clean sheet | 17.1% |
Manchester City
Fulham
2.1–1.0
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Tottenham Hotspur
Ipswich Town
2.2–1.1
xG
64%
Over 2.5
Coventry City
Crystal Palace
1.7–1.3
xG
58%
Over 2.5
AFC Bournemouth
Nottingham Forest
1.7–1.1
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Aston Villa
Sunderland
1.9–1.2
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Newcastle United
Arsenal
1.0–1.8
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Hull City
Brighton & Hove Albion
0.9–1.9
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Liverpool
Manchester United
2.0–1.3
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665959 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Chelsea are favourites. They win 53.8% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.5% for the draw and 21.7% for Leeds United. Including the draw, Chelsea avoid defeat 78.3% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.5% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (9.8%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest Chelsea win is 1-0 (9.8%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 54.5% of simulations. Chelsea keep a clean sheet 35.1% of the time and Leeds United 17.1%.
The simulations average 2.85 goals: 1.79 for Chelsea and 1.06 for Leeds United. Over 1.5 goals lands 78% of the time, over 2.5 goals 54% and over 3.5 goals 31.9%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.