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For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Newcastle United vs Arsenal 100,000 times. Arsenal won 56,373 of them (56.4%), the draw came up 24% of the time and Newcastle United won 19.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.3%, while the likeliest Arsenal win is 0-1 (10.5%). Both teams score in 52.5% of simulations.
| Newcastle United win | 19.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24% |
| Arsenal win | 56.4% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.3%) |
| Expected goals | 0.98 – 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.9% |
| Newcastle United score first | 33.5% |
| Arsenal score first | 59.6% |
| Newcastle United clean sheet | 16.6% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 37.8% |
Manchester City
Fulham
2.1–1.0
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Tottenham Hotspur
Ipswich Town
2.2–1.1
xG
64%
Over 2.5
Coventry City
Crystal Palace
1.7–1.3
xG
58%
Over 2.5
AFC Bournemouth
Nottingham Forest
1.7–1.1
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Chelsea
Leeds United
1.8–1.1
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Aston Villa
Sunderland
1.9–1.2
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Hull City
Brighton & Hove Albion
0.9–1.9
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Liverpool
Manchester United
2.0–1.3
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665810 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Arsenal are favourites. They win 56.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24% for the draw and 19.7% for Newcastle United. Including the draw, Arsenal avoid defeat 80.3% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.3% of simulations. Next are 0-1 (10.5%) and 0-2 (10%). The likeliest Arsenal win is 0-1 (10.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 52.5% of simulations. Newcastle United keep a clean sheet 16.6% of the time and Arsenal 37.8%.
The simulations average 2.80 goals: 0.98 for Newcastle United and 1.82 for Arsenal. Over 1.5 goals lands 77.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 52.9% and over 3.5 goals 30.9%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.