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  1. Simulations
  2. UEFA Nations League
  3. Iceland vs Luxembourg
UEFA Nations League · 100,000 simulations

Iceland vs Luxembourg prediction

We simulated Iceland vs Luxembourg 100,000 times. Iceland won 69,205 of them (69.2%), the draw came up 19.1% of the time and Luxembourg won 11.7%. The most likely score is 1-0 (13.5%), and both teams score in 42.8% of simulations.

Iceland badge
Iceland Laugardalsvöllur
Monday 16 November
Luxembourg badge
Luxembourg Away
69.2% 69,205 wins
19.1% Draw
11.7% 11,735 wins
Expected goals
2.06 – 0.69
Likeliest score
1-0 13.5%
Both score
42.8%
Over 2.5
51.4%
Simulated 100,000 times Updated Laugardalsvöllur, Reykjavík

Iceland vs Luxembourg in numbers 100,000 simulations · UEFA Nations League · Monday 16 November, 17:00

Iceland vs Luxembourg simulation probabilities
Iceland win69.2%
Draw19.1%
Luxembourg win11.7%
Most likely score1-0 (13.5%)
Expected goals2.06 – 0.69
Both teams to score42.8%
Over 1.5 goals75.3%
Over 2.5 goals51.4%
Over 3.5 goals29.6%
Iceland score first72.7%
Luxembourg score first20.8%
Iceland clean sheet50.5%
Luxembourg clean sheet13.2%

More UEFA Nations League simulations

Cyprus Montenegro 1.2–1.5 xG 50% Over 2.5 Latvia Armenia 1.1–1.3 xG 41% Over 2.5 Belarus Albania 0.9–1.4 xG 40% Over 2.5 Finland San Marino 3.7–0.3 xG 75% Over 2.5 Spain England 1.9–1.3 xG 61% Over 2.5 Belgium Italy 1.6–1.4 xG 58% Over 2.5 Croatia Czech Republic 1.9–1.0 xG 57% Over 2.5 France Türkiye 2.8–0.9 xG 70% Over 2.5
Football simulation API

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Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.

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  ?v=2
  &detail=standard
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# 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves,
# corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown

Iceland vs Luxembourg prediction FAQs

Who will win Iceland vs Luxembourg?

Iceland are favourites. They win 69.2% of our 100,000 simulations, against 19.1% for the draw and 11.7% for Luxembourg. Including the draw, Iceland avoid defeat 88.3% of the time.

What is the most likely score in Iceland vs Luxembourg?

1-0, which came up in 13.5% of simulations. Next are 2-0 (13.5%) and 3-0 (9.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.

Will both teams score in Iceland vs Luxembourg?

Both teams score in 42.8% of simulations. Iceland keep a clean sheet 50.5% of the time and Luxembourg 13.2%.

How many goals will there be in Iceland vs Luxembourg?

The simulations average 2.74 goals: 2.06 for Iceland and 0.69 for Luxembourg. Over 1.5 goals lands 75.3% of the time, over 2.5 goals 51.4% and over 3.5 goals 29.6%.

How does the OddAlerts match simulator work?

Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.

How often is the simulation updated?

Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.