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  1. Simulations
  2. Brazil Serie A
  3. Grêmio vs Bahia
Brazil Serie A · 100,000 simulations

Grêmio vs Bahia prediction

We simulated Grêmio vs Bahia 100,000 times. Grêmio won 47,138 of them (47.1%), the draw came up 25.2% of the time and Bahia won 27.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.5%, while the likeliest Grêmio win is 2-1 (9.2%). Both teams score in 61.3% of simulations.

Grêmio badge
Grêmio Arena do Grêmio
Thursday 19 November
Bahia badge
Bahia Away
47.1% 47,138 wins
25.2% Draw
27.7% 27,647 wins
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.32
Likeliest score
1-1 11.5% Top Grêmio win: 2-1 9.2%
Both score
61.3%
Over 2.5
59.5%
Simulated 100,000 times Updated Davi de Oliveira Lacerda Arena do Grêmio, Rio

Grêmio vs Bahia in numbers 100,000 simulations · Brazil Serie A · Thursday 19 November, 00:30

Grêmio vs Bahia simulation probabilities
Grêmio win47.1%
Draw25.2%
Bahia win27.7%
Most likely score1-1 (11.5%)
Expected goals1.78 – 1.32
Both teams to score61.3%
Over 1.5 goals82.1%
Over 2.5 goals59.5%
Over 3.5 goals37.4%
Grêmio score first54.4%
Bahia score first39.9%
Grêmio clean sheet27.2%
Bahia clean sheet17.4%

More Brazil Serie A simulations

Mirassol Atlético Mineiro 1.7–1.0 xG 51% Over 2.5 Coritiba Santos 1.4–1.5 xG 55% Over 2.5 Remo Chapecoense 1.9–1.0 xG 54% Over 2.5 Cruzeiro Palmeiras 1.4–1.4 xG 53% Over 2.5 Flamengo Athletico PR 2.7–0.7 xG 65% Over 2.5 Corinthians Botafogo 1.7–0.9 xG 49% Over 2.5 Vitória Bragantino 1.5–1.3 xG 53% Over 2.5 Vasco da Gama Internacional 1.9–0.9 xG 53% Over 2.5
Football simulation API

Put this simulation in your own models

Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.

See the API Try it for 48 hours, £9.99 
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493566
  ?v=2
  &detail=standard
  &include=value,corners,cards

# 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves,
# corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown

Grêmio vs Bahia prediction FAQs

Who will win Grêmio vs Bahia?

Grêmio are favourites. They win 47.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.2% for the draw and 27.7% for Bahia. Including the draw, Grêmio avoid defeat 72.4% of the time.

What is the most likely score in Grêmio vs Bahia?

1-1, which came up in 11.5% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Grêmio win is 2-1 (9.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.

Will both teams score in Grêmio vs Bahia?

Both teams score in 61.3% of simulations. Grêmio keep a clean sheet 27.2% of the time and Bahia 17.4%.

How many goals will there be in Grêmio vs Bahia?

The simulations average 3.09 goals: 1.78 for Grêmio and 1.32 for Bahia. Over 1.5 goals lands 82.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 59.5% and over 3.5 goals 37.4%.

How does the OddAlerts match simulator work?

Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.

How often is the simulation updated?

Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.