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  1. Simulations
  2. UEFA Nations League
  3. Spain vs England
UEFA Nations League · 100,000 simulations

Spain vs England prediction

We simulated Spain vs England 100,000 times. Spain won 52,604 of them (52.6%), the draw came up 23.3% of the time and England won 24.1%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.7%, while the likeliest Spain win is 2-1 (9.5%). Both teams score in 59.3% of simulations.

Spain badge
Spain Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Sunday 15 November
England badge
England Away
52.6% 52,604 wins
23.3% Draw
24.1% 24,145 wins
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.21
Likeliest score
1-1 10.7% Top Spain win: 2-1 9.5%
Both score
59.3%
Over 2.5
59.4%
Simulated 100,000 times Updated Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid

Spain vs England in numbers 100,000 simulations · UEFA Nations League · Sunday 15 November, 19:45

Spain vs England simulation probabilities
Spain win52.6%
Draw23.3%
England win24.1%
Most likely score1-1 (10.7%)
Expected goals1.88 – 1.21
Both teams to score59.3%
Over 1.5 goals81.5%
Over 2.5 goals59.4%
Over 3.5 goals37.3%
Spain score first58.1%
England score first36.8%
Spain clean sheet30.2%
England clean sheet15.6%

More UEFA Nations League simulations

Moldova Kazakhstan 1.2–1.2 xG 42% Over 2.5 Serbia Germany 0.9–2.6 xG 67% Over 2.5 Netherlands Greece 2.0–1.0 xG 57% Over 2.5 Slovenia Switzerland 0.7–1.5 xG 38% Over 2.5 Scotland North Macedonia 2.5–0.5 xG 58% Over 2.5 Bulgaria Iceland 0.9–1.6 xG 45% Over 2.5 Luxembourg Estonia 1.1–1.0 xG 35% Over 2.5 Slovakia Faroe Islands 2.0–0.7 xG 49% Over 2.5
Football simulation API

Put this simulation in your own models

Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.

See the API Try it for 48 hours, £9.99 
GET /api/predictions/generate/420725780
  ?v=2
  &detail=standard
  &include=value,corners,cards

# 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves,
# corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown

Spain vs England prediction FAQs

Who will win Spain vs England?

Spain are favourites. They win 52.6% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.3% for the draw and 24.1% for England. Including the draw, Spain avoid defeat 75.9% of the time.

What is the most likely score in Spain vs England?

1-1, which came up in 10.7% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.5%) and 1-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Spain win is 2-1 (9.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.

Will both teams score in Spain vs England?

Both teams score in 59.3% of simulations. Spain keep a clean sheet 30.2% of the time and England 15.6%.

How many goals will there be in Spain vs England?

The simulations average 3.09 goals: 1.88 for Spain and 1.21 for England. Over 1.5 goals lands 81.5% of the time, over 2.5 goals 59.4% and over 3.5 goals 37.3%.

How does the OddAlerts match simulator work?

Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.

How often is the simulation updated?

Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.