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  1. Simulations
  2. UEFA Nations League
  3. Estonia vs Bulgaria
UEFA Nations League · 100,000 simulations

Estonia vs Bulgaria prediction

We simulated Estonia vs Bulgaria 100,000 times. Estonia won 46,003 of them (46%), the draw came up 29.5% of the time and Bulgaria won 24.5%. The most likely score is 1-0 (14.5%), and both teams score in 41.9% of simulations.

Estonia badge
Estonia A. Le Coq Arena
Monday 16 November
Bulgaria badge
Bulgaria Away
46% 46,003 wins
29.5% Draw
24.5% 24,488 wins
Expected goals
1.29 – 0.86
Likeliest score
1-0 14.5%
Both score
41.9%
Over 2.5
36.4%
Simulated 100,000 times Updated A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn

Estonia vs Bulgaria in numbers 100,000 simulations · UEFA Nations League · Monday 16 November, 17:00

Estonia vs Bulgaria simulation probabilities
Estonia win46%
Draw29.5%
Bulgaria win24.5%
Most likely score1-0 (14.5%)
Expected goals1.29 – 0.86
Both teams to score41.9%
Over 1.5 goals63.6%
Over 2.5 goals36.4%
Over 3.5 goals17.3%
Estonia score first50.7%
Bulgaria score first36.6%
Estonia clean sheet42.6%
Bulgaria clean sheet27.8%

More UEFA Nations League simulations

Cyprus Montenegro 1.2–1.5 xG 50% Over 2.5 Latvia Armenia 1.1–1.3 xG 41% Over 2.5 Belarus Albania 0.9–1.4 xG 40% Over 2.5 Finland San Marino 3.7–0.3 xG 75% Over 2.5 Spain England 1.9–1.3 xG 61% Over 2.5 Belgium Italy 1.6–1.4 xG 58% Over 2.5 Croatia Czech Republic 1.9–1.0 xG 57% Over 2.5 France Türkiye 2.8–0.9 xG 70% Over 2.5
Football simulation API

Put this simulation in your own models

Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.

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GET /api/predictions/generate/420725812
  ?v=2
  &detail=standard
  &include=value,corners,cards

# 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves,
# corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown

Estonia vs Bulgaria prediction FAQs

Who will win Estonia vs Bulgaria?

Estonia are favourites. They win 46% of our 100,000 simulations, against 29.5% for the draw and 24.5% for Bulgaria. Including the draw, Estonia avoid defeat 75.5% of the time.

What is the most likely score in Estonia vs Bulgaria?

1-0, which came up in 14.5% of simulations. Next are 1-1 (13.2%) and 0-0 (12.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.

Will both teams score in Estonia vs Bulgaria?

Both teams score in 41.9% of simulations. Estonia keep a clean sheet 42.6% of the time and Bulgaria 27.8%.

How many goals will there be in Estonia vs Bulgaria?

The simulations average 2.15 goals: 1.29 for Estonia and 0.86 for Bulgaria. Over 1.5 goals lands 63.6% of the time, over 2.5 goals 36.4% and over 3.5 goals 17.3%.

How does the OddAlerts match simulator work?

Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.

How often is the simulation updated?

Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.