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  1. Simulations
  2. UEFA Nations League
  3. Poland vs Sweden
UEFA Nations League Β· 100,000 simulations

Poland vs Sweden prediction

We simulated Poland vs Sweden 100,000 times. Poland won 42,036 of them (42%), the draw came up 24.4% of the time and Sweden won 33.6%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.3%, while the likeliest Poland win is 2-1 (8.7%). Both teams score in 57.7% of simulations.

Poland badge
Poland TarczyΕ„ski Arena
Tuesday 17 November
Sweden badge
Sweden Away
42% 42,036 wins
24.4% Draw
33.6% 33,565 wins
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.36
Likeliest score
1-1 11.3% Top Poland win: 2-1 8.7%
Both score
57.7%
Over 2.5
55.2%
Simulated 100,000 times Updated TarczyΕ„ski Arena, Poland

Poland vs Sweden in numbers 100,000 simulations Β· UEFA Nations League Β· Tuesday 17 November, 19:45

Poland vs Sweden simulation probabilities
Poland win42%
Draw24.4%
Sweden win33.6%
Most likely score1-1 (11.3%)
Expected goals1.55 – 1.36
Both teams to score57.7%
Over 1.5 goals78.1%
Over 2.5 goals55.2%
Over 3.5 goals33.2%
Poland score first47.9%
Sweden score first46.5%
Poland clean sheet26.3%
Sweden clean sheet21.8%

More UEFA Nations League simulations

Moldova Kazakhstan 1.2–1.2 xG 42% Over 2.5 Serbia Germany 0.9–2.6 xG 67% Over 2.5 Netherlands Greece 2.0–1.0 xG 57% Over 2.5 Slovenia Switzerland 0.7–1.5 xG 38% Over 2.5 Scotland North Macedonia 2.5–0.5 xG 58% Over 2.5 Bulgaria Iceland 0.9–1.6 xG 45% Over 2.5 Luxembourg Estonia 1.1–1.0 xG 35% Over 2.5 Slovakia Faroe Islands 2.0–0.7 xG 49% Over 2.5
Football simulation API

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Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.

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# 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves,
# corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown

Poland vs Sweden prediction FAQs

Who will win Poland vs Sweden?

Poland are favourites. They win 42% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.4% for the draw and 33.6% for Sweden. Including the draw, Poland avoid defeat 66.4% of the time.

What is the most likely score in Poland vs Sweden?

1-1, which came up in 11.3% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.7%) and 1-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Poland win is 2-1 (8.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.

Will both teams score in Poland vs Sweden?

Both teams score in 57.7% of simulations. Poland keep a clean sheet 26.3% of the time and Sweden 21.8%.

How many goals will there be in Poland vs Sweden?

The simulations average 2.90 goals: 1.55 for Poland and 1.36 for Sweden. Over 1.5 goals lands 78.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 55.2% and over 3.5 goals 33.2%.

How does the OddAlerts match simulator work?

Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here 1xBet), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.

How often is the simulation updated?

Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.