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  1. Simulations
  2. UEFA Nations League
  3. Germany vs Netherlands
UEFA Nations League · 100,000 simulations

Germany vs Netherlands prediction

We simulated Germany vs Netherlands 100,000 times. Germany won 48,915 of them (48.9%), the draw came up 23.1% of the time and Netherlands won 28%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10%, while the likeliest Germany win is 2-1 (9.1%). Both teams score in 65.1% of simulations.

Germany badge
Germany Olympiastadion Berlin
Monday 16 November
Netherlands badge
Netherlands Away
48.9% 48,915 wins
23.1% Draw
28% 28,000 wins
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.43
Likeliest score
1-1 10% Top Germany win: 2-1 9.1%
Both score
65.1%
Over 2.5
65.1%
Simulated 100,000 times Updated Olympiastadion Berlin, Berlin

Germany vs Netherlands in numbers 100,000 simulations · UEFA Nations League · Monday 16 November, 19:45

Germany vs Netherlands simulation probabilities
Germany win48.9%
Draw23.1%
Netherlands win28%
Most likely score1-1 (10%)
Expected goals1.94 – 1.43
Both teams to score65.1%
Over 1.5 goals85.2%
Over 2.5 goals65.1%
Over 3.5 goals43.4%
Germany score first59.6%
Netherlands score first36.3%
Germany clean sheet24.3%
Netherlands clean sheet14.8%

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Football simulation API

Put this simulation in your own models

Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.

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GET /api/predictions/generate/420725783
  ?v=2
  &detail=standard
  &include=value,corners,cards

# 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves,
# corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown

Germany vs Netherlands prediction FAQs

Who will win Germany vs Netherlands?

Germany are favourites. They win 48.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.1% for the draw and 28% for Netherlands. Including the draw, Germany avoid defeat 72% of the time.

What is the most likely score in Germany vs Netherlands?

1-1, which came up in 10% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.1%) and 1-2 (6.7%). The likeliest Germany win is 2-1 (9.1%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.

Will both teams score in Germany vs Netherlands?

Both teams score in 65.1% of simulations. Germany keep a clean sheet 24.3% of the time and Netherlands 14.8%.

How many goals will there be in Germany vs Netherlands?

The simulations average 3.37 goals: 1.94 for Germany and 1.43 for Netherlands. Over 1.5 goals lands 85.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 65.1% and over 3.5 goals 43.4%.

How does the OddAlerts match simulator work?

Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.

How often is the simulation updated?

Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.