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  1. Simulations
  2. Bundesliga
  3. Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn
Bundesliga · 100,000 simulations

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn prediction

We simulated Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn 100,000 times. Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 72,877 of them (72.9%), the draw came up 16.6% of the time and Paderborn won 10.5%. The most likely score is 2-0 (10.4%), and both teams score in 54.2% of simulations.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen badge
Bayer 04 Leverkusen BayArena
Saturday 21 November
Paderborn badge
Paderborn Away
72.9% 72,877 wins
16.6% Draw
10.5% 10,542 wins
Expected goals
2.57 – 0.88
Likeliest score
2-0 10.4%
Both score
54.2%
Over 2.5
66.6%
Simulated 100,000 times Updated BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn in numbers 100,000 simulations · Bundesliga · Saturday 21 November, 14:30

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn simulation probabilities
Bayer 04 Leverkusen win72.9%
Draw16.6%
Paderborn win10.5%
Most likely score2-0 (10.4%)
Expected goals2.57 – 0.88
Both teams to score54.2%
Over 1.5 goals85.9%
Over 2.5 goals66.6%
Over 3.5 goals45.2%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen score first71.5%
Paderborn score first24.7%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen clean sheet41.6%
Paderborn clean sheet8.1%

More Bundesliga simulations

FC Bayern München FC Köln 3.7–0.7 xG 81% Over 2.5 Elversberg SC Freiburg 1.5–1.7 xG 62% Over 2.5 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Dortmund 1.2–2.0 xG 63% Over 2.5 FC Union Berlin RB Leipzig 1.3–2.0 xG 63% Over 2.5 Eintracht Frankfurt TSG Hoffenheim 2.0–1.6 xG 69% Over 2.5 Schalke 04 VfB Stuttgart 1.3–1.8 xG 59% Over 2.5
Football simulation API

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# 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves,
# corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn prediction FAQs

Who will win Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn?

Bayer 04 Leverkusen are favourites. They win 72.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 16.6% for the draw and 10.5% for Paderborn. Including the draw, Bayer 04 Leverkusen avoid defeat 89.5% of the time.

What is the most likely score in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn?

2-0, which came up in 10.4% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9%) and 3-0 (8.8%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.

Will both teams score in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn?

Both teams score in 54.2% of simulations. Bayer 04 Leverkusen keep a clean sheet 41.6% of the time and Paderborn 8.1%.

How many goals will there be in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn?

The simulations average 3.46 goals: 2.57 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 0.88 for Paderborn. Over 1.5 goals lands 85.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 66.6% and over 3.5 goals 45.2%.

How does the OddAlerts match simulator work?

Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.

How often is the simulation updated?

Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.