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  1. Simulations
  2. UEFA Nations League
  3. Iceland vs Bulgaria
UEFA Nations League · 100,000 simulations

Iceland vs Bulgaria prediction

We simulated Iceland vs Bulgaria 100,000 times. Iceland won 59,533 of them (59.5%), the draw came up 23.4% of the time and Bulgaria won 17.1%. The most likely score is 1-0 (12.4%), and both teams score in 47.7% of simulations.

Iceland badge
Iceland Laugardalsvöllur
3–0 Full time
Bulgaria badge
Bulgaria Away
59.5% 59,533 wins
23.4% Draw
17.1% 17,067 wins
Expected goals
1.81 – 0.85
Likeliest score
1-0 12.4%
Both score
47.7%
Over 2.5
49.4%

Full time 3-0. Before kick-off the simulations had Iceland winning 59.5% and gave this exact score 6.9%.

Simulated 100,000 times Updated Balazs Berke Laugardalsvöllur, Reykjavík

Iceland vs Bulgaria in numbers 100,000 simulations · UEFA Nations League · Saturday 3 October, 17:00

Iceland vs Bulgaria simulation probabilities
Iceland win59.5%
Draw23.4%
Bulgaria win17.1%
Most likely score1-0 (12.4%)
Expected goals1.81 – 0.85
Both teams to score47.7%
Over 1.5 goals74.3%
Over 2.5 goals49.4%
Over 3.5 goals27.8%
Iceland score first61.2%
Bulgaria score first31.1%
Iceland clean sheet43.1%
Bulgaria clean sheet16.8%

More UEFA Nations League simulations

Moldova Kazakhstan 1.2–1.1 xG 41% Over 2.5 Serbia Germany 0.8–2.7 xG 68% Over 2.5 Netherlands Greece 2.0–1.1 xG 58% Over 2.5 Slovenia Switzerland 0.7–1.5 xG 38% Over 2.5 Scotland North Macedonia 2.5–0.5 xG 58% Over 2.5 Bulgaria Iceland 0.9–1.6 xG 47% Over 2.5 Luxembourg Estonia 1.1–1.0 xG 35% Over 2.5 Slovakia Faroe Islands 2.0–0.6 xG 48% Over 2.5
Football simulation API

Put this simulation in your own models

Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.

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GET /api/predictions/generate/420687348
  ?v=2
  &detail=standard
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# 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves,
# corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown

Iceland vs Bulgaria prediction FAQs

Who will win Iceland vs Bulgaria?

Iceland are favourites. They win 59.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.4% for the draw and 17.1% for Bulgaria. Including the draw, Iceland avoid defeat 82.9% of the time.

What is the most likely score in Iceland vs Bulgaria?

1-0, which came up in 12.4% of simulations. Next are 2-0 (11.4%) and 1-1 (11%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.

Will both teams score in Iceland vs Bulgaria?

Both teams score in 47.7% of simulations. Iceland keep a clean sheet 43.1% of the time and Bulgaria 16.8%.

How many goals will there be in Iceland vs Bulgaria?

The simulations average 2.66 goals: 1.81 for Iceland and 0.85 for Bulgaria. Over 1.5 goals lands 74.3% of the time, over 2.5 goals 49.4% and over 3.5 goals 27.8%.

How does the OddAlerts match simulator work?

Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.

How often is the simulation updated?

Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.