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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Newport County vs Swindon Town 100,000 times. Newport County won 53,811 of them (53.8%), the draw came up 25.2% of the time and Swindon Town won 21%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.9%, while the likeliest Newport County win is 2-1 (9.6%). Both teams score in 54.4% of simulations.
| Newport County win | 53.8% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.2% |
| Swindon Town win | 21% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.9%) |
| Expected goals | 1.79 – 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.6% |
| Newport County score first | 59.6% |
| Swindon Town score first | 33.3% |
| Newport County clean sheet | 35.7% |
| Swindon Town clean sheet | 17.1% |
Gillingham
Crewe Alexandra
1.3–1.3
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Crawley Town
Fleetwood Town
1.4–1.6
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Northampton Town
Rochdale
1.7–0.9
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Accrington Stanley
Salford City
1.3–1.6
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Chesterfield
Shrewsbury Town
2.1–1.0
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Barnet
Port Vale
1.8–1.2
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Tranmere Rovers
Colchester United
1.6–1.1
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Grimsby Town
Rotherham United
2.2–1.0
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420646598 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Newport County are favourites. They win 53.8% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.2% for the draw and 21% for Swindon Town. Including the draw, Newport County avoid defeat 79% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.9% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.6%) and 1-0 (9.6%). The likeliest Newport County win is 2-1 (9.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 54.4% of simulations. Newport County keep a clean sheet 35.7% of the time and Swindon Town 17.1%.
The simulations average 2.83 goals: 1.79 for Newport County and 1.04 for Swindon Town. Over 1.5 goals lands 78.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 53.6% and over 3.5 goals 31.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.